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巴菲特透露其在金融危机期间进行投资的“简单法则”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年03月20日 10:57:35
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(原)(标)(题)(:巴)(菲)(特)(透)(露)(其)(在)(金)(融)(危)(机)(期)(间)(进)(行)(投)(资)(的)(“简)(单)(法)(则)(”
来)(源)(:新)(浪)(财)(经)(
在)(2008年)(秋)(季)(全)(球)(市)(场)(都)(处)(于)(崩)(溃)(的)(境)(地)(。拥)(有)(6000亿)(美)(元)(资)(产)(的)(投)(资)(银)(行)(雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)((LehmanBrothers)于)(当)(年)(9月)(15日)(申)(请)(破)(产)(保)(护)(,这)(是)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(的)(一)(个)(转)(折)(点)(,当)(时)(失)(业)(率)(已)(经)(高)(达)(10%。
两)(周)(后)(,在)(9月)(29日)(的)(一)(天)(中)(,美)(国)(股)(市)(下)(跌)(了)(1.2万)(亿)(美)(元)(,道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(下)(跌)(了)(778点)(,接)(近)(7%。
“你)(当)(时)(只)(会)(觉)(得)(整)(个)(市)(场)(都)(在)(崩)(溃)(,”一)(位)(名)(叫)(瑞)(恩)(-拉)(森)(的)(资)(深)(股)(票)(交)(易)(员)(当)(天)(告)(诉)(纽)(约)(时)(报)(。“人)(们)(开)(始)(抛)(售)(,疯)(狂)(的)(抛)(售)(,但)(是)(卖)(出)(去)(并)(不)(容)(易)(。你)(买)(什)(么)(已)(经)(不)(重)(要)(了)(,重)(点)(是)(你)(卖)(了)(。”
但)(有)(一)(位)(超)(级)(投)(资)(家)(有)(着)(不)(同)(的)(看)(法)(:伯)(克)(希)(尔)(-哈)(撒)(韦)(公)(司)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(沃)(伦)(-巴)(菲)(特)(。
事)(实)(上)(,“股)(神)(”沃)(伦)(-巴)(菲)(特)(当)(时)(还)(在)(买)(入)(。
“我)(一)(直)(在)(购)(买)(美)(国)(股)(票)(,”巴)(菲)(特)(于)(2008年)(10月)(16日)(在)(纽)(约)(时)(报)(的)(一)(篇)(评)(论)(文)(章)(中)(写)(道)(。伯)(克)(希)(尔)(哈)(撒)(韦)(公)(司)(在)(经)(济)(危)(机)(期)(间)(也)(进)(行)(了)(大)(量)(投)(资)(,主)(要)(支)(持)(通)(用)(电)(气)(和)(高)(盛)((。
巴)(菲)(特)(也)(认)(识)(到)(了)(危)(机)(的)(严)(重)(性)(;他)(告)(诉)(CNBC那)(一)(年)(的)(美)(国)(市)(场)(就)(像)(一)(个)(“经)(济)(珍)(珠)(港)(”。但)(是)(,当)(其)(他)(人)(在)(往)(枕)(头)(下)(塞)(钱)(时)(,为)(什)(么)(巴)(菲)(特)(选)(择)(购)(买)(价)(格)(迅)(速)(下)(跌)(的)(股)(票)(呢)(?
巴)(菲)(特)(在)(“纽)(约)(时)(报)(”写)(道)(:“决)(定)(我)(购)(买)(行)(为)(的)(一)(个)(简)(单)(的)(规)(则)(是)(:当)(别)(人)(贪)(婪)(时)(要)(害)(怕)(,当)(别)(人)(害)(怕)(时)(要)(贪)(婪)(。”
在)(他)(看)(来)(,尽)(管)(危)(机)(在)(短)(期)(内)(会)(带)(来)(一)(定)(的)(痛)(苦)(,但)(是)(美)(国)(创)(新)(企)(业)(的)(长)(期)(价)(值)(将)(不)(断)(增)(加)(。巴)(菲)(特)(警)(告)(大)(家)(不)(要)(投)(资)(“高)(度)(杠)(杆)(化)(的)(实)(体)(,或)(竞)(争)(弱)(势)(的)(企)(业)(”,但)(是)(提)(醒)(大)(家)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(为)(广)(大)(投)(资)(者)(提)(供)(了)(以)(低)(价)(购)(买)(强)(势)(公)(司)(股)(票)(的)(机)(会)(。
“简)(而)(言)(之)(,坏)(消)(息)(是)(投)(资)(者)(最)(好)(的)(朋)(友)(。它)(让)(你)(以)(显)(着)(降)(价)(的)(价)(格)(购)(买)(美)(国)(一)(部)(分)(的)(未)(来)(市)(场)(,”巴)(菲)(特)(在)(专)(栏)(中)(解)(释)(道)(。“担)(忧)(众)(多)(机)(制)(完)(善)(的)(公)(司)(能)(否)(保)(持)(长)(期)(繁)(荣)(毫)(无)(意)(义)(。这)(些)(企)(业)(确)(实)(会)(像)(往)(常)(一)(样)(遭)(受)(盈)(利)(打)(击)(。但)(大)(多)(数)(大)(公)(司)(将)(在)(未)(开)(5年)(、10年)(和)(20年)(后)(创)(下)(新)(的)(利)(润)(记)(录)(。”
实)(践)(证)(明)(这)(一)(预)(测)(结)(果)(是)(正)(确)(的)(:在)(雷)(曼)(兄)(弟)(倒)(闭)(后)(的)(10年)(间)(,标)(普)(500指)(数)(上)(涨)(了)(130%。像)(苹)(果)(和)(亚)(马)(逊)(这)(样)(的)(公)(司)(市)(值)(已)(经)(飙)(升)(到)(新)(的)(高)(度)(,估)(值)(达)(到)(万)(亿)(美)(元)(。
根)(据)(CNBC的)(计)(算)(,如)(果)(你)(在)(2008年)(8月)(初)(向)(苹)(果)(投)(资)(1000美)(元)(,那)(么)(截)(至)(2018年)(8月)(2日)(它)(的)(价)(值)(将)(超)(过)(9,222.50美)(元)(,或)(超)(过)(9倍)(。
不)(过)(,巴)(菲)(特)(的)(战)(略)(也)(并)(不)(是)(完)(美)(无)(缺)(,他)(承)(认)(,由)(于)(市)(场)(在)(2009年)(继)(续)(暴)(跌)(,他)(10月)(份)(的)(购)(买)(时)(间)(有)(点)(偏)(差)(。巴)(菲)(特)(告)(诉)(CNBC,“至)(少)(还)(可)(以)(推)(后)(四)(到)(五)(个)(月)(。”
当)(然)(,巴)(菲)(特)(在)(接)(受)(CNBC纪)(录)(片)(“华)(尔)(街)(危)(机)(:震)(惊)(世)(界)(的)(那)(一)(周)(”的)(采)(访)(时)(表)(示)(,在)(市)(场)(上)(涨)(时)(想)(要)(进)(行)(投)(资)(是)(人)(性)(。
“人)(们)(会)(对)(某)(些)(正)(在)(升)(值)(的)(某)(些)(东)(西)(感)(兴)(趣)(,但)(并)(不)(是)(因)(为)(他)(们)(理)(解)(它)(或)(其)(他)(任)(何)(东)(西)(,”巴)(菲)(特)(说)(。
巴)(菲)(特)(建)(议)(不)(要)(按)(照)(情)(感)(本)(能)(行)(事)(,而)(是)(遵)(循)(这)(个)(简)(单)(的)(规)(则)(。
巴)(菲)(特)(在)(2018年)(的)(股)(东)(信)(中)(写)(道)(:“尽)(管)(市)(场)(总)(体)(上)(是)(理)(性)(的)(,但)(它)(们)(偶)(尔)(会)(做)(出)(疯)(狂)(的)(事)(情)(。”“抓)(住)(当)(时)(提)(供)(的)(机)(会)(并)(不)(需)(要)(很)(好)(的)(智)(慧)(,经)(济)(学)(学)(位)(或)(熟)(悉)(华)(尔)(街)(术)(语)(。投)(资)(者)(当)(时)(需)(要)(的)(是)(能)(够)(既)(忽)(视)(多)(数)(散)(户)(的)(恐)(惧)(或)(热)(情)(,又)(专)(注)(于)(一)(些)(简)(单)(的)(基)(本)(面)(。在)(持)(续)(一)(段)(时)(间)(内)(做)(一)(些)(看)(起)(来)(缺)(乏)(想)(象)(力)(的)(事)(情)(,甚)(至)(这)(些)(事)(情)(看)(起)(来)(很)(愚)(蠢)(,但)(这)(也)(是)(很)(有)(必)(要)(的)(。”(崔)(斯)(特)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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